News event: October 30, 2026. Analysts have raised their estimate for the average Brent crude price in 2026 to $92.88 a barrel, reflecting continued concern about energy supply disruptions and the cost of moving oil through the Middle East.
The figure comes from a Reuters survey of 32 economists and market analysts conducted during October. It is a forecast for the year’s average price, not the current market quotation or a guarantee of where oil will trade.
What changed in the forecast?
The October survey put Brent’s expected 2026 average at $92.88, up from $89.05 in the previous month’s poll. The forecast for US West Texas Intermediate crude increased to $86.60 from $83.90.
Participants pointed to disrupted trade routes, depleted inventories, higher shipping costs and persistent risks to supply. Oil markets have also been influenced by conflict involving Iran and attacks affecting regional energy infrastructure.
Futures prices for prompt delivery have remained higher than prices for later delivery, a structure known as backwardation. This pattern can indicate that traders place a premium on supplies available immediately.
Why consumers and businesses care
Oil prices feed into the cost of diesel, petrol, aviation fuel, freight and some industrial inputs. Sustained pressure on energy markets can therefore influence inflation and household spending even in countries that do not produce crude.
At the same time, high prices can reduce demand. Survey participants expected global oil consumption to fall by roughly 2.5 million barrels per day during 2026 before rebounding in 2027. These figures are projections subject to revision as the geopolitical and economic outlook changes.
What to watch in 2027
The poll projected a late-2026 market deficit of around 2.7 million barrels per day, potentially shifting toward a modest surplus in 2027 if Gulf shipping and production recover. OPEC+ production decisions and the progress of regional diplomacy will be important variables.
For investors, the survey provides a snapshot of expert expectations, not personalized trading advice. Forecasts can change quickly if supply disruptions ease, demand weakens or policy decisions alter production.
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